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Yadier Molina is arguably one of the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball. JAWS and peak (WAR7) gains are the major drivers of this, but positional standards, traditional milestones, and ordinal rankings are considerations as well. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. While Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina are already committed to retirement, what becomes of star pitcher Adam Wainwright remains a question for St. Louis fans. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. As for R-JAWS, hes entered the top 20, but as he approaches both his 34th birthday and free agency, the question of how many more years hell be trusted to handle the ninth inning looms. The oldest and wisest twin. The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. The baseball player is married to Jenny Curry, his starsign is Virgo and he is now 41 years of age. Adam Wainwright strikes out Chas McCormick swinging in the top of the 1st inning, one of his two strikeouts over three innings of work. Before going down, he made solid progress towards the 200-win and 3,000 strikeout milestones; hes at 184 and 2,653, respectively, the latter thanks to a 30.1% strikeout rate, his best since 2016. Replacing those lost or disrupted seasons with three average Wainwright seasons a 13-7 mark with 138 strikeouts over 164 innings would have Wainwright at 223-126 with 2,418 strikeouts. Its just hard to pitch that long nowadays, without injuries especially. 55 votes, 66 comments. Theres a good chance no pitcher will again crack the 300-win plateau, a mark that has been achieved 24 times throughout the sports history. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright's Hall of Fame chances could be dampened by circumstances out of his control. 76-43, 3.18 ERA, 1,183 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA. I want to confine my results to the integration era, as, while this whole exercise is based on some level of silliness, I dont think asking Adam Wainwright to win 40 games and pitch 400 innings is particularly fair. Hes certainly on pace for the Hall, but a lot of it will depend on how he can rebound following his off-the-field motorcycle accident. What would Adam Wainwright need to do in 2022 to deserve Hall of Fame induction? Albert Pujols is, barring something unforseen, going to easily sail into the National Baseball Hall of FameI always feel the need to add a caveat since uncodified steroid accusations have already kept one of the few modern hitters unreservedly superior to Pujols out of the Hall of Fame, though seeing David Ortiz make it does give me hope that Albert Pujols being a nice guy that everyone in baseball media seems to like would provide sufficient cushion to whatever random conjecture somebody wants to throw out into the discourse. He went 119-66 with a 2.96 ERA from 2007-15, a span in which only Kershaw had a lower ERA among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched. Halladay and Martinez combined to win five Cy Youngs had more dominant peaks than Wainwright, but their status as first-ballot Hall of Famers serve as evidence the electorate is already modifying its standards for Hall-worthy starting pitchers. It happens a lot. Astros @ Cardinals. 1st stage: All good. Interestingly enough, he missed the entire 2011 season for the world champion St. Louis Cardinals, but he did play an integral role as a closer in the 2006 playoffs, throwing 9.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs. Assuming he pitches in 2022, a year in which I am assuming Major League Baseball will indeed be played, which he has already announced will be his last, Wainwrights first round of Hall of Fame votes would not even be revealed until 2028. David Price is older than he seems; hes already 32 in a few months with just 122 career wins. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. Carlos Correa, Shortstop(32.7 Career WAR | 32.7 7-Year Peak WAR | 32.7 JAWS, +6.7 JAWS) Between some favorable changes to his DRS totals and an AL-leading 5.9 WAR (surpassed by Ohtani's two-way total of 7.7), the 26-year-old Correa has boosted his JAWS more than any position player. Adam Wainwright has the second-most WAR of any Cardinals pitcher all-time (44.5). Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. 122-66, 3.24 ERA, 1,621 strikeouts, 123 adjusted ERA. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals' pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukee's Luis Urias in the fourth inning. Wainwright threw his sinker, cutter and curveball the most, and the velocity on all three pitches measured a significant drop-off from last season. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. All rights reserved. Even if he retired now, Verlander has likely done enough to ensure a plaque in Cooperstown. by Handedness, Seven Pitchers (and Some More Position Players) Who Have Most Helped Their Hall of Fame Cases in 2021. One Wainwright is a lot closer to establishing than perhaps even he realizes. He entered Thursday 16-7 on. Adam Wainwright Stats. Adam Wainwright was glad to see Jason Isringhausen enter the Cardinals Hall of Fame: "He had a profound impact on my career and helped me dramatically." 3rd stage: Well, his arm hasnt rebounded the way we were hoping for, so were just going to shut him down and see how he responds. His draft stock suggests he has the ability to be a top-tier pitcher, but as of now, hes not on a Cooperstown track. Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Next, select your favourite teams and leagues and well show you their latest news and scores in the My Favourites section of the home page. March 2, 2023 | 00:00:10. Please logout and login again. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukees Luis Urias in the fourth inning. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. The good news is that even with a modest 2.6 WAR this year, hes in his seventh-best season and can make tracks towards the third base peak standard (43.1 WAR). Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images), Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season. His induction was most likely heavily influenced by his passing, but I think sets the bar for what a pitcher needs to have accomplished in recent years. For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. His 133 OPS+ is a step down from his 201218 prime (146), but his .493 SLG is his best since leaving Arizona. Unless Adam Wainwright continues to play for a few more seasons and perform at an elite level, the Hall of Fame may elude him, though he will certainly find his name on the voting ballot when eligible. Were not concerned. He'll retire with honors and accolades, becoming a fine coach and St. Louis area legend. This doesnt mean that Wainwright definitely deserves to make itTim Hudson, who barely qualified for a second turn on the BBWAA ballot and didnt receive the 5% of votes needed to qualify for a third, ranks ahead of him, for instance. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. Chapman notched his 300th save on August 26, but hes had an unimpressive season, walking 16.2% of hitters en route to a 3.68 ERA and 4.16, all career worsts. The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. Be the first one to comment on this story. Listen to the Seeing Red podcast on the Cardinals, featuring Will Leitch and Miklasz. Its available on your preferred podcast platform. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. A frequently cited statistic for determining Hall worthiness is the average production of a Hall of Famer at that position, though my preferred approach is to consider a players worthiness not according to the average at a position among a subset of players who are sometimes transcendent and sometimes unworthy, but rather to ask, Is this guy the (fill in ordinal number of Hall of Famers at position) best (fill in position) ever? By Hybrid JAWS, Yadier Molina is the 13th greatest catcher of all-time (two of the ones ahead of him, Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, are not yet Hall-eligible), and there are sixteen catchers in the Hall of Fame. . He surpassed 200 wins in 2019 (hes at 219 now), but with his strikeout rate dipping from 24.5% last year to 17.0% this year, hes still 201 strikeouts away from 3,000 and will probably need two seasons to reach the milestone instead of one. Hes still going strong, as hes tops in the NL in wins (8) in 2017. By checking this box, I agree to the terms of service and privacy policy of Rogers Media. Prices highlights include a 2012 Cy Young award, two ERA titles, and five 200-strikeout seasons. The Cardinals looked like one of the best teams in the National League throughout the 2022 regular season, finishing with a record of 93-69, winning the NL Central Division in the process. Its my belief that this as-yet-unnamed metric which Im hoping to formalize in time for the upcoming election cycle does a better job of emphasizing closers rather than starters-turned-relievers who racked up significant WAR in the rotations before making the move to roles more fireman-like than closer-like; it bumps the likes of Tom Gordon, Ellis Kinder, Bobby Shantz, and Kerry Wood down several pegs. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. At least not for starting pitchers. Ill assume that FanGraphss weirdly defensive stance against Wainwrights pursuit of bulletin board material has subsided by then. Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer just had seasons that good in 2018. Central Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto headlines the list of players in the National League West who are on track to have a chance to make it into baseball's Hall of Fame. It goes something like this . The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. The 40-year . 230-143, 3.70 ERA, 2,788 strikeouts, 117 adjusted ERA. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. Guerrero is on the Dominican Republic roster for this months World Baseball Classic. Wainwright is a Hall of Fame person, and a very good pitcher. Write some stories about it! Wainwright said. I am a big fan, not as a universal absolute but as a general guideline, of the Jay Jaffe JAWS system, a thing I have mentioned repeatedly in my writing, though I also prefer to use a hybrid model which incorporates a players career performance and his seven best individual seasons (his peak) as measured not only by Baseball Reference but by FanGraphs (in most non-catcher cases, over the course of a career, this doesnt make a huge difference, but in the most discussed cases, the margins are so thin that I am happy to look at as much data as possible). Arizona Diamondbacks. For relievers, Im using the WAR-and-WPA hybrid stat via which Ive examined recent candidates such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner. As noted above, for the past few election cycles, Ive turned away from reliever JAWS in favor of a hybrid metric using WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) sits in the dugout during the second inning of a baseball game between the Cardinals and the Pirates on Thursday, April, 7, 2022, at. However, not all stories have happy endings. By what Ill provisionally call R(eliever)-JAWS, hes climbed from 22nd all-time to 15th, which is still well below the standard for the eight enshrined relievers (29.7). His cutter was next, dropping from his 2022 average of 84.3 mph to 80.8 mph, and his curveball decreased from 72.9 mph to 70.2 mph.. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. He became a member of the Cardinals when the Atlanta Braves traded him for J.D. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. Please contact us. Covering the latest and most controversial news around the world of sports, heavily centered on the Philadelphia Eagles and National Football League. Well have to wait and see. It is possible that the same will be the case for a third Cardinals legend. It's not the be-all end-all but his baseball reference kind of shows that he really shouldn't make it. ago. Follow Cody Swartz on Twitter (@cbswartz5). 2/4/18 Super Bowl champs. He was the first pitcher aged 39 or older since Mike Mussina in 2008 to throw at least 200 innings with an ERA+ of 125 or better. This is a question that has been frequently raised throughout the season as the Cardinals' 'Big Three' (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina) were constantly praised by St. Louis fans. A Hall of Fame-bound pitcher is slated to take the mound in the top of the first inning of tonights NL wild card game. Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onSt. Louis Cardinals and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. He answers the tough question on if his legacy is enough to get him into the MLB Hall of Fame alongside the all-time greats.Follow all our social media channels for more content!https://twitter.com/FoulTerritoryTVhttps://www.instagram.com/foulterritoryshow/https://www.tiktok.com/@foulterritoryshowhttps://www.facebook.com/FoulTerritoryShowhttps://www.twitch.tv/foulterritoryshow But in evaluating Wainwright by the standards of the modern starting pitchers, he has a path albeit a narrow one that requires him to sustain his late-30s rebirth for at least one and possibly two more seasons that seemed impossible when he was in the midst of an extended sunset phase late in the 2010s. He was traded to St. Louis in 2003 from the Braves in a deal that saw outfielder J.D. Paul Goldschmidt, first base (49.1 career | 40.6 Peak | 44.9 JAWS, +2.2 JAWS). Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Guerrero was seen walking toward the clubhouse with an athletic trainer in the second inning and was replaced defensively by Rainer Nunez to start the third. Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. That's an average of 174 innings per year. (Beltran) was frozen on an 0-2 Adam Wainwright curveball with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. I like that its a round number, but I assure you that this is merely a coincidence. That may be what landed him on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation this year. How much more does Wainwright need to do to make the Hall of Fame in your eyes? For the last 35 years Bernie Miklasz has entertained, enlightened, and connected with generations of St. Louis sports fans. Among those who are retired and eligible for Cooperstown, the 65th greatest starter of all-time is actually a pretty sufficiently big nameDwight Gooden. pre-2008 adjustment) | 39.5 Peak fWAR | 48.8 fJAWS, +0.3 fJAWS). More From This Game. 5th stage: 60-day IL. When the Washington Nationals took Stephen Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft, he was one of the most hyped prospects in the games history. Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. Sep 14, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Wainwright was a three time All Star and two time Gold Glove winner, finishing in the top three of the NL Cy Young vote four times. He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. 4th stage: The latest MRI showed something that was a little off, and we think its smart to do more tests and let him go get a second opinion. The 35-year-old has a career record of 169-89 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2,682 strikeouts. Perhaps (I would argue this is more likely) a new narrative arc would emergeWainwright, say, grits through physical pain to guide the Cardinals to the 2022 World Series and enters a level of folklore which allows voters to look optimistically upon his borderline statistical case (see: Ortiz, David). A similarly impressive 2022 and perhaps 2023, though upon signing a one-year extension with the Cardinals last week, Wainwright strongly hinted he would retire alongside longtime batterymate Yadier Molina following next season added to his 2017-14 peak would nudge him ever closer to a Cooperstown-worthy body of work and at the least underline the kind of company hes already keeping. But theres no alarm. There is a trio of starting pitchers not yet Hall-eligible who rank somewhere between Gooden and WainwrightFlix Hernndez, Cole Hamels, and Chris Sale. deGrom has already racked up significant value even while qualifying for the ERA title only five times in eight seasons.